THE DEFENSE RESTS: Ryan Howard

The Defense Rests
By: Violations Greg

This is the first in an on-going series in which Violations Greg uses his 2^nd year law-school dropout education and sports addiction to work as the defense of publicly accused athletes against public allegations, accusations and charges.

CASE #1: Ryan Howard Charged with Being an Overpaid, Strikeout Bum and Possessing One of the Worst Contracts in Major League Baseball.

Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, you’ve heard the outlandish charges against Mr. Ryan Howard of the Philadelphia Phillies, the most egregious being that he is overpaid. In fact, a national online entity piled on and has gone as far as to accuse Mr. Howard of possessing the third worst contract in Major League Baseball.

Over the course of the following pages, we shall demonstrate that these accusations and charges are unfounded.  While it is true that Mr. Howard does strikeout an inordinate amount of times, the evidence will show that those strikeouts do not tell the entire story.

All of us have been judged or judged others erroneously in one way or another. Maybe you were the teenager who dressed in black and liked rock music.  That didn’t mean that you were the occult member that some may have thought you were.  Maybe you were the overweight kid and labeled lazy.  Maybe you called an overweight person lazy without knowing anything about them.  Perhaps, a genetic disposition was to blame.

Now, I am not suggesting that Mr. Howard is genetically pre-disposed to striking out. I am simply pointing out that there may have been times when many of you have been victims of being labeled incorrectly based on what other people saw on the surface.  Or, perhaps you labeled someone incorrectly based on some casual observations.

Please keep this in mind as you see the evidence that will be put forth.  Is there a possibility that the eyewitnesses are simply blinded by the strikeouts because of their frequency and not able to see the actual value that Mr. Howard holds?

The evidence will show that Mr. Howard is not a bum or overpaid and that he surely is not guilty of having the third worse contract in Major League Baseball.  To the contrary, the evidence will show that when compared to the all-time greatest Home Run & RBI leaders in MLB history and high-priced contemporaries, hereinafter referred to as the “Field,” Mr. Howard’s compensation is justified.  In fact, you just might agree, after seeing all of the evidence, that Mr. Howard may be a victim of being under-compensated.

We’d like to present to you Exhibit A, which indicates that Mr. Ryan Howard contributes 0.838 Runs Batted In per game, which stands among the greatest run-producers ever.

EXHIBIT A: RUNS BATTED IN PER GAME

Player	Games	RBI	RBI/G
Gehrig	2164	1995	0.922
Ruth	2503	2213	0.884
RYAN HOWARD	1098	920	0.838
J.Foxx	2317	1922	0.830
A. Rod	2524	1950	0.773
Pujols	1859	1434	0.771
McGwire	1874	1414	0.755
Josh Hamilton	737	553	0.750
M. Cabrera	1512	1123	0.743
Teixeira	1497	1101	0.735
F. Thomas	2322	1704	0.734
Sosa	2354	1667	0.708
Aaron	3298	2297	0.696
Griffey, Jr	2671	1836	0.687
Thome	2543	1699	0.668
P. Fielder	1160	764	0.659
F. Robinson	2808	1812	0.645
Musial	3026	1951	0.645
Cobb	3034	1938	0.639
Adrian Gonzalez	1176	750	0.638
Bonds	2986	1996	0.638
Mays	2992	1903	0.636
E.Murray	3026	1917	0.634
Joey Votto	728	457	0.628
Matt Kemp	893	526	0.589

History also shows that Mr. Howard is among the most efficient run-producing batters of all-time, averaging 0.227 RBIs for every at-bat, as demonstrated in Exhibit B.

EXHIBIT B: RBIs PER AT-BAT

PLAYER	AB	RBI	RBI/AB
Ruth	8399	2213	0.263
Gehrig	8001	1995	0.249
J.Foxx	8134	1922	0.236
McGwire	6187	1414	0.229
RYAN HOWARD	4054	920	0.227
F. Thomas	8199	1704	0.208
Pujols	6919	1434	0.207
Bonds	9847	1996	0.203
A. Rod	9662	1950	0.202
Thome	8422	1699	0.202
M. Cabrera	5663	1123	0.198
Josh Hamilton	2825	553	0.196
Teixeira	5664	1101	0.194
Sosa	8813	1667	0.189
Griffey, Jr	9801	1836	0.187
P. Fielder	4108	764	0.186
Aaron	12364	2297	0.186
F. Robinson	10006	1812	0.181
Musial	10972	1951	0.178
Joey Votto	2599	457	0.176
Mays	10881	1903	0.175
Cobb	11434	1938	0.169
Adrian Gonzalez	4426	750	0.169
E.Murray	11336	1917	0.169
Matt Kemp	3265	526	0.161

If you look at Exhibit C, you’ll notice that Mr. Howard ranks behind Mark McGwire and barely behind Babe Ruth with regards to Home Runs averaged per game.

EXHIBIT C: HOME RUNS PER GAME 

PLAYER	Games	HR	HR/G
McGwire	1874	583	0.311
Ruth	2503	714	0.285
RYAN HOWARD	1098	300	0.273
Sosa	2354	609	0.259
A. Rod	2524	647	0.256
Pujols	1859	475	0.256
Bonds	2986	762	0.255
Thome	2543	612	0.241
Griffey, Jr	2671	630	0.236
Aaron	3298	762	0.231
J.Foxx	2317	534	0.230
Gehrig	2164	493	0.228
Teixeira	1497	338	0.226
F. Thomas	2322	521	0.224
P. Fielder	1160	260	0.224
Mays	2992	660	0.221
Josh Hamilton	737	161	0.218
M. Cabrera	1512	321	0.212
F. Robinson	2808	586	0.209
Joey Votto	728	133	0.183
Adrian Gonzalez	1176	213	0.181
Matt Kemp	893	151	0.169
E.Murray	3026	504	0.167
Musial	3026	475	0.157
Cobb	3034	117	0.039

How many Home Runs does Mr. Howard average per at-bat?  Exhibit D demonstrates that Mr. Howard averages more Home Runs per at-bat than the likes of Sammy Sosa, Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez, hitting a Home Run in 7.4% of his at-bats.

EXHIBIT D: HOME RUNS PER AT-BAT 

PLAYER	AB	HR	HR/AB
McGwire	6187	583	0.094
Ruth	8399	714	0.085
Bonds	9847	762	0.077
RYAN HOWARD	4054	300	0.074
Thome	8422	612	0.073
Sosa	8813	609	0.069
Pujols	6919	475	0.069
A. Rod	9662	647	0.067
J.Foxx	8134	534	0.066
Griffey, JR	9801	630	0.064
F. Thomas	8199	521	0.064
P. Fielder	4108	260	0.063
Aaron	12364	762	0.062
Gehrig	8001	493	0.062
Mays	10881	660	0.061
Teixeira	5664	338	0.060
F. Robinson	10006	586	0.059
Josh Hamilton	2825	161	0.057
M. Cabrera	5663	321	0.057
Joey Votto	2599	133	0.051
Adrian Gonzalez	4426	213	0.048
Matt Kemp	3265	151	0.046
E.Murray	11336	504	0.044
Musial	10972	475	0.043
Cobb	11434	117	0.010

Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, if you look at Exhibit E, you’ll notice that over 162 games, Ryan Howard averages more Runs Batted In than players such as Albert Pujols, Frank Thomas, and Prince Fielder.

EXHIBIT E: 162 GAME AVERAGE RUNS BATTED IN

PLAYER	162 game AVG RBI
Gehrig	149
Ruth	143
RYAN HOWARD	136
J.Foxx	134
Pujols	125
A. Rod	125
McGwire	122
Josh Hamilton	122
M. Cabrera	120
F. Thomas	119
Teixeira	119
Sosa	115
Aaron	113
Griffey, JR	111
Bonds	108
Thome	108
P. Fielder	107
F. Robinson	105
Musial	104
Mays	103
Adrian Gonzalez	103
E.Murray	103
Cobb	103
Joey Votto	102
Matt Kemp	95

And, Exhibit F demonstrates Mr. Howard’s unbelievable 162 game average with regards to Home Runs.

EXHIBIT F: 162 GAME AVERAGE HOME RUNS 

PLAYER	162 game AVG HR
McGwire	50
Ruth	46
RYAN HOWARD	44
A. Rod	42
Sosa	42
Pujols	41
Bonds	41
Thome	39
Griffey, JR	38
Gehrig	37
J.Foxx	37
Teixeira	37
Aaron	37
F. Thomas	36
P. Fielder	36
Mays	36
Josh Hamilton	35
M. Cabrera	34
F. Robinson	34
Joey Votto	30
Adrian Gonzalez	29
E.Murray	27
Matt Kemp	27
Musial	25
Cobb	6

Now, the accusers will have you believe that Mr. Howard’s numbers are inflated because he’s only played seven years.  This may be the case. If you tend to believe this, please note that Mr. Votto and Mr. Josh Hamilton have yet to play seven years as a regular, full-time player yet and their compensation is greater than Mr. Howard’s.  Since Mr. Howard has only played seven years since becoming a full-time starter, this is all the evidence that we have to go on.  Only time will tell if those accusations are true.

What I can show you are how Mr. Howard’s first seven years as a regular player compare to the first seven years of the players in our Field.  Exhibit G shall show the productivity of the first seven years regarding Runs Batted In. Exhibit H shall show the first seven years productivity regarding Home Runs.  You will notice Mr. Howard is on pace with the greatest of all time and also Mr. Albert Pujols.

EXHIBIT G: RBIs IN FIRST SEVEN YEARS

PLAYER	RBI 1st 7 YEARS
Gehrig	981
J.Foxx	935
Pujols	861
RYAN HOWARD	852
A. Rod	851
Ruth	839
F. Thomas	823
M. Cabrera	817
Teixeira	798
P. Fielder	754
Aaron	743
Adrian Gonzalez	726
Mays	721
Thome	714
F. Robinson	709
Cobb	702
Musial	699
E.Murray	697
Griffey, JR	664
Bonds	631
McGwire	623
Sosa	510

*Votto, Hamilton, Kemp do not have seven years as regular player

EXHIBIT H: HRs IN FIRST SEVEN YEARS 

PLAYER	HRs 1st 7 YEARS
A. Rod	293
Ruth	289
Pujols	282
RYAN HOWARD	276
J.Foxx	263
P. Fielder	258
Mays	255
Thome	252
F. Thomas	250
Teixeira	242
F. Robinson	241
M. Cabrera	235
Gehrig	232
McGwire	226
Griffey, JR	222
Aaron	219
Adrian Gonzalez	206
Bonds	206
E.Murray	198
Sosa	167
Musial	145
Cobb	45

 *Votto, Hamilton, Kemp do not have seven years as regular player

Another accusation is that Mr. Howard is so derelict in his abilities to hit same-handed pitching, in his case left-handed pitching, that he should not be in the lineup against tough left-handed pitching or that he should be pinch-hit for in late inning against left-handed pitching.

Would you be surprised to learn that Mr. Howard averages more RBI’s per at-bat against same-handed pitching than did Jim Thome or Ken Griffey, Jr.?  As Exhibit I clearly shows, Mr. Howard respectably drives in a run in 18.91% of his at-bats against same-handed pitching, making him competitive in our Field.

EXHIBIT I: RBI’s PER AT-BAT AGAINST SAME-HANDED PITCHING 

Player	AB	RBI	RBI/AB
Ruth	2408	629	26.12%
Gehrig	2344	550	23.46%
J.Foxx	6804	1595	23.44%
McGwire	4592	1036	22.56%
Pujols	5207	1090	20.93%
F. Thomas	6244	1282	20.53%
A. Rod	7272	1486	20.43%
M. Cabrera	4391	881	20.06%
Bonds	3351	660	19.70%
Sosa	6566	1258	19.16%
RYAN HOWARD	1396	264	18.91%
F. Robinson	6738	1262	18.73%
Josh Hamilton	874	162	18.54%
P. Fielder	1326	242	18.25%
Aaron	8940	1631	18.24%
Griffey, JR	3091	558	18.05%
Joey Votto	830	146	17.59%
Mays	7665	1328	17.33%
Thome	2489	422	16.95%
Adrian Gonzalez	1464	238	16.26%
Matt Kemp	2399	368	15.34%
Musial	4766	666	13.97%
Cobb	1695	224	13.22%

*Teixeira and Murray N/A as switch hitters

Mr. Howard’s production does slip a little when comparing Home Runs per at-bat against same-handed pitching.  However, Exhibit J shows that Mr. Howard still averages more Home Runs than Jim Thome and higher priced first basemen such as Prince Fielder and Joey Votto when facing same-handed pitching.

EXHIBIT J: HRs PER AT-BAT AGAINST SAME-HANDED PITCHING: 

Player	AB	HR	HR/AB
McGwire	4592	427	9.30%
Ruth	2408	219	9.09%
Sosa	6566	458	6.98%
Bonds	3351	227	6.77%
Pujols	5207	351	6.74%
A. Rod	7272	488	6.71%
J.Foxx	6804	448	6.58%
Griffey, JR	3091	186	6.02%
M. Cabrera	4391	258	5.88%
Aaron	8940	522	5.84%
F. Robinson	6738	392	5.82%
F. Thomas	6244	361	5.78%
Gehrig	2344	134	5.72%
Mays	7665	436	5.69%
RYAN HOWARD	1396	74	5.30%
Josh Hamilton	874	43	4.92%
Thome	2489	118	4.74%
P. Fielder	1326	62	4.68%
Matt Kemp	2399	106	4.42%
Joey Votto	830	34	4.10%
Adrian Gonzalez	1464	53	3.62%
Musial	4766	168	3.52%
Cobb	1695	14	0.83%
*Teixeira and Murray N/A as switch hitters

Some of the testimony heard thus far claims that because Mr. Howard strikes out so often, the Phillies miss out on Runs that he could have scored had Mr. Howard reached base on singles, extra base hits, and/or fielder choices.

If that is the case, then Mr. Howard would clearly be well behind the Field in Runs per game.  Exhibit K will demonstrate that Mr. Howard does not trail behind the middle of the pack by any huge number, and, in fact, still ranks ahead of Mr. Votto and Mr. Fielder.

EXHIBIT K: RUNS SCORED PER GAME:

PLAYER	Games	Runs	Runs/g
Gehrig	2164	1888	0.872
Ruth	2503	2174	0.869
J.Foxx	2317	1751	0.756
A. Rod	2524	1898	0.752
Bonds	2986	2227	0.746
Cobb	3034	2246	0.740
Pujols	1859	1376	0.740
Mays	2992	2062	0.689
Aaron	3298	2174	0.659
F. Robinson	2808	1829	0.651
Musial	3026	1949	0.644
F. Thomas	2322	1494	0.643
Josh Hamilton	737	471	0.639
M. Cabrera	1512	961	0.636
Sosa	2354	1475	0.627
Teixeira	1497	938	0.627
McGwire	1874	1167	0.623
Thome	2543	1583	0.622
Griffey, JR	2671	1662	0.622
Matt Kemp	893	538	0.602
RYAN HOWARD	1098	661	0.602
Joey Votto	728	428	0.588
Adrian Gonzalez	1176	671	0.571
P. Fielder	1160	654	0.564
E.Murray	3026	1627	0.538

When looking at Runs Scored/game, Howard falls toward the back of the pack.  As Exhibit K shows, the middle of the pack would be Frank Thomas’ 0.643 Runs/g.  Howard is 0.041 Runs/game behind Frank Thomas.  That equates to six less runs over a 162 game schedule.  Granted, those six runs could add a couple of wins to the win column of the Phillies.  But, when deliberating, please remember that Mr. Howard still is ahead of Mr. Votto, Mr. Gonzalez, and Mr. Fielder, all of whom earn more than Mr. Howard.

And, as the evidence shows, Mr. Howard makes up the difference with most of the Field when you combine the runs he knocks in with the runs he scores.  So, while he may not score as many runs as Thome, he is directly involved in more runs when you include the HRs.

According to the accusers’ claims, Mr. Howard’s strikeouts cost the Phillies runs by Mr. Howard’s inability to get on-base or put the ball in play.  If that were true, logic would follow that Mr. Howard would rank well behind the likes of Willie Mays, Frank Robinson, or Hank Aaron in runs being directly responsible for.  Exhibit L shows the opposite.

EXHIBIT L: RUNS SCORED + RUNS BATTED IN PER GAME: 

PLAYER	RBIs+Runs/game
Gehrig	1.794
Ruth	1.753
J.Foxx	1.585
A. Rod	1.525
Bonds	1.518
Pujols	1.512
RYAN HOWARD	1.440
Josh Hamilton	1.389
Cobb	1.379
M. Cabrera	1.378
McGwire	1.377
F. Thomas	1.377
Teixeira	1.362
Aaron	1.356
Sosa	1.335
Mays	1.325
Griffey, JR	1.310
F. Robinson	1.297
Thome	1.291
Musial	1.289
P. Fielder	1.222
Joey Votto	1.216
Adrian Gonzalez	1.208
Matt Kemp	1.191
E.Murray	1.171

We’ve all heard those claims that my client’s durability is an issue.  That claim is simply unfounded.  With the exception of his Achilles injury recovery in 2012, Mr. Howard has never played in less than 143 games since becoming a regular starter.  One injury does not make someone a “durability” liability.  A player who doesn’t experience an injury or two in their career is a rare exception. Only time will tell if Mr. Howard’s durability is an issue, but at the present moment, there is no solid evidence of such.  So, if the durability liability label doesn’t fit, one must acquit.

Then, we have those accusations that Mr. Howard has had a recent decline in “late-and-close” innings.  These would be situations from the seventh inning on and with a score within a few runs.

The record shall show that Ryan Howard’s numbers did indeed drop last year in these late-and-close innings compared to the previous year.  A recent Daily News article pointed out, Howard hit .190 in 50 such situations with 24 K and 7 BB.

Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, would you be surprised to learn that in 2008, the year the Phillies won the World Series and Mr. Howard finished second in MVP voting, that Mr. Howard had a .158 batting average in these late-and-close innings?

In 2007, Mr. Howard batted .257 in late-and-close situations, .330 in 2009, .280 in 2010, and .268 in 2011.  This number simply fluctuates from year to year.  These same accusers would’ve had you believe that Mr. Howard was a late-and-close situation choke artist in 2008, but how would they have explained his .330 average in similar situations the next year.

Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, is it possible that Mr. Howard’s late-and-close ability hadn’t declined in 2012, but that the late-and-close competition had dramatically improved?

What if the late-and-close pitching skill level of a division opponent, say the Atlanta Braves, had improved to the point where everyone’s numbers have dropped off?

Would you not have to accept the fact that sometimes great pitching simply trumps great hitters and, in fact, Mr. Howard’s late-and-close skills had not regressed at all?  How much of an impact could one team’s late-and-close pitching actually have on Mr. Howard’s numbers? The impact could be substantial if that team is a division rival, simply based on the number of times they face each other over the course of a season.

The evidence shows that Mr. Howard has struggled last year against the Atlanta Braves power-trio of lefty Jonny Venters, lefty Eric O’Flaherty, and closer-phenom Craig Kimbrel? The data also shows that a lot of batters struggled against these pitchers.

Exhibit M shows Mr. Howard’s struggles against the Atlanta trio as well as a few other popular players:

EXHIBIT M: STRUGGLES AGAINST THE BRAVES POWER TRIO

Albert Pujols – 1-7
Prince Fielder – 0-9
Chase Utley – 0-9
Ryan Howard – 0-9

If the at-bats against the Braves threesome are removed from those late-and-close situations in 2012, Howard’s average in those situations jumps from .190 to .242. Not great, but much better than the overall.190 and far from the bum that he’s been accused of being.  In fact, that .242 isn’t a great deviation from his career numbers in those situations.  Please remember that Mr. Howard is a .262 career hitter in late-and-close situations.

Some have testified that Mr. Howard started off on such a tear and has diminished dramatically over the past two years.  To be fair, Mr. Howard played on one leg for one season.  That one season happened to be the second half of 2011 and the first half of 2012.  Mr. Howard still managed to finish 2011 with 33HRs (10^th in MLB) and 116 RBIs (6^th MLB).  Mr. Howard’s production after his return in 2012 put him on a 162 game pace of 32 Home Runs (14^th in MLB) and 128 RBIs (tied with Josh Hamilton for 2^nd in MLB).

Those two “down” years aren’t as bad as down years of some of the greats.

-Willie Mays had 36 HRs and 84 RBIs in 1956, then 29 HR and 96 RBIs in 1958.

-Hank Aaron put up 30 HRs and 95 RBIs in 1958 and 24 HRs and 95 RBIs in 1964.

-Frank Thomas had years of 15HR/77RBI and 28HR/92RBI.

-Jim Thome has had years of 25HR/73RBI, 30HR/85, 34HR/90RBI.

History shows that the list goes on.  And, almost everyone in the Field has missed a chunk of a season or two due to injuries at different points in their careers.  Howard’s Achilles injury is no different.  Please remember that Mr. Votto suffered a knee injury after signing his extension and Mr. Hamilton has had a questionable past and yet they are not routinely assaulted with the “overpaid” insults.

Mr. Howard is and has been falsely accused.  The evidence in his favor is overwhelming.  Before making your final decision as to whether Mr. Howard is overpaid and in possession of a terrible extension and, at times, a bum, please remember the Exhibits above and this one final exhibit, Exhibit N.  This shall show Mr. Howard’s extension numbers compared with other high-priced, run-producing contemporaries whom he regularly outperforms with the exception of Albert Pujols.

Please understand, we are in no way trying to convince you that Mr. Howard is as good as Mr. Pujols and worth that money.  That is not our intention nor has Mr. Howard been accused of claiming to be as good as Mr. Pujols.  We are simply addressing the charges of Mr. Howard being an overpaid bum possessing one of the worst contracts in all of Major League Baseball.

EXHIBIT N: CURRENT/RECENT RUN-PRODUCER CONTRACT EXTENSIONS

-Joey Votto – 13yr/$263
-Albert Pujols – 10yr/$240M
-Prince Fielder – 9/$214M
-Mark Teixeira – 8/$180M
-Adrian Gonzales – 7/$154M
-Josh Hamilton – 5/$133M
-Ryan Howard – 5/$125M

For a small group of vocal people, the only thing that will always matter is that Mr. Howard will always be among the league leaders in strikeouts.  That’s understandable because they see almost two hundred strikeouts a year, which remain ingrained in their brains.

However, if the evidence and statistics in this case tell us anything, it is that Mr. Howard is on a Hall of Fame pace—health, the ultimate wildcard, permitting.  We actually believe that the evidence may actually demonstrate, in fact, that Mr. Howard’s $125M extension is actually a bargain compared to other recent contracts.

Please consider all of the facts and exhibits when making your decision.

THE DEFENSE RESTS.