The Eagles Are Mediocre, Like Their GM

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(Photo/Jason Behnken)

The Eagles aren’t terrible, they just aren’t good. They are better than the likes of the Giants, Washington Football Club, Lions, Panther, Bears, Jets, Jags, etc. That’s clear. But, they aren’t in the same class as any other team in the Playoffs, except the Steelers. Maybe it’s a PA thing. I think it’s a Howie thing.

Jeffrey Lurie is a decent owner. There probably aren’t ten other owners that I’d rather have as the owner of our beloved Eagles franchise. He’s slipping, though, as he becomes more involved in front office evaluations, and more reliant upon analytics. The most glaring issue is his blind devotion to General Manager Howie Roseman.

Roseman continually avoids culpability from Lurie and brilliantly covers himself in a cloud of groupthink, where responsibility for bad moves often fails to land squarely upon his shoulders, but the good moves are all his doing. He’s an alleged trade and cap whiz, even with a cap filled with overpriced, aging veterans.

Slay was a great trade. He’s a stud, but I haven’t seen any other great trades or signings in the past few years. Javon Hargraves, the fifth-highest DT cap hit in 2021, didn’t play anywhere near a top-five level in the last ten games of the year. Howie got a great return for Carson Wentz, but I’m not putting him on a pedestal for efficiently putting out the fire he created.

FIRST ROUND SUCCESS

You can be the greatest trader and cap manipulator in the NFL, but if you can’t draft it’s all for naught. Howie drafts below the league’s success rate, particularly with the most important first-round picks. As of last year, the league-average success rate of first-round picks is 49%, pretty much a coin toss. Some teams and GMs do better (Baltimore) and some do worse, Eagles and Roseman. In the past five drafts 2016-2021, since Chip Kelly got the boot, Roseman has overseen five first-round draft picks.

2016 – Carson Wentz
2017 – Derek Barnett
2019 – Andre Dillard
2020 – Jalen Reagor
2021 – DeVonta Smith

That’s a 40% hit rate if you include Carson Wentz. Wentz was pivotal to setting the Eagles up for the Folesian Miracle but has proven himself to be mentally unable to handle the stress of the NFL. Wentz should really only count as half a success. Who knows who Roseman would’ve drafted in 2021 if the fans weren’t demanding Smith after the Reagor, JJAW debacles? The fans should get credit for that pick, but we’ll give it to Howie. Overall, NFL.com ranked Roseman 21st in last year’s GM Draft Power Rankings. Is that what we’re cool with as fans these days? Middle-of-the-road mediocrity?

DEFENSE SUCCESS

On top of the bad first-round success, Roseman is completely inept at drafting defensive players. Josh Sweat, an okay edge rusher, is the only defensive player Roseman has drafted in the past five years that I’d say is above average—sorry Avonte Maddox lovers. Since 2016, Roseman has drafted twenty-two defensive players. To be fair, Milton Williams and Zech McPhearson haven’t had enough time to say if they’re players or not. Subtracting those two, that leaves twenty defensive selections in the last seven drafts. How many are legit players? Three. Avonte Maddox. Josh Sweat. Jalen Mills. For shits and giggles, we’ll add Rasul Douglas who sucked here and has flourished with the Packers.

2021 Milton Williams DL
2021 Zech McPhearson DB
2021 Marlon Tuipulotu DL
2021 Tarron Jackson DE
2021 JaCoby Stevens S
2021 Patrick Johnson DE
2020 Davion Taylor LB
2020 K’Von Wallace S
2020 Shaun Bradley LB
2020 Casey Toohill DE
2019 Shareef Miller DE
2018 Avonte Maddox CB
2018 Josh Sweat DE
2017 Derek Barnett DE
2017 Sidney Jones CB
2017 Rasul Douglas CB
2017 Nathan Gerry S
2017 Elijah Qualls DT
2016 Blake Countess CB
2016 Jalen Mills S
2016 Alex McCalister DE
2016 Joe Walker ILB

That’s four out of twenty. That’s twenty percent success with no clear game-changers on defense. That’s below average and so is the Eagles defense. Coincidence? How below average have the Eagles been lately with Roseman as GM? Lucky for us, WolfSports.com did the math for at least the past four drafts based on PFF rankings.

Final Thoughts

Two NFL franchises ranked in the top five for both hit percentage and star player percentage: New Orleans and Tampa Bay.

The Saints have gone 11-5, 13-3, 13-3, and 12-4 over the past four seasons.

The Buccaneers just won Super Bowl LV.

Three NFL franchises ranked in the bottom five for both hit percentage and star player percentage: Philadelphia, Arizona, and Houston.

The Eagles have drafted zero Pro Bowl players over the past four seasons.

That is all. Go Birds.